Lakers Not So Bad Without Bryant



The Blazers took a tough loss Saturday, falling 99-82 to the Lakers in the Rose Garden. It was the Blazers’ first loss at home to the Lakers in the last 10 matchups, and the Lakers didn’t even have Kobe Bryant! However, it is interesting to note that Bryant is only averaging 0.98 points per field goal attempt this season, worse than Brandon Roy (1.05), Martell Webster (1.01) and Rudy Fernandez (1.01), to name a few familiar guard/small forward types. Am I trying to say that these Blazer players are better than Bryant? No, of course not. Well, maybe Roy. But it’s no secret that Bryant has just as much potential to shoot his team out of games as he has to shoot them back into games. The Lakers orchestrated a balanced scoring attack without their perennial all-star, scoring 1.07 points per shot with six players in double figures.

One of the key reasons for the Lakers success this season has been center Pau Gasol, one of the more efficient offensive players in the league. In addition to 1.05 points per shot, Gasol pulls down 3.4 offensive rebounds each game—good for 8^th in the league—giving the Lakers extra offensive opportunities. He also dishes out 3.4 assists, to just 1.8 turnovers, one of the best ratios in the NBA among centers and power forwards. The significance of an assist-to-turnover ratio is that it compares, at a simple level, how often a player does good things with the ball versus how often he does bad things. To look just at turnovers or assists individually would ignore the fact that some players have the ball in their hands more often, giving them more opportunities for racking up both of these stats. Pau’s 1.9 assist/TO ratio even outshines Bryant’s 1.5, a fact that’s particularly impressive because guards tend to have better ratios on average. Am I trying to smear Kobe?  Well maybe—he’s a douche—but he also tends to be overrated for his ability to make highlight-worthy, amazing plays, when a deeper analysis of the numbers tells me he may not be as efficient an offensive player as he gets credit for.

Oh he’s clutch, you say? This article informs us that in the last five postseasons, Bryant has shot just 45% in clutch situations—situations where the score is within five, with less than five minutes remaining in the game. His career FG% on all shots is about 46%, making his playoff “clutch” performance slightly worse than his norm. In addition, teammate Gasol performed better than Kobe overall, and better than his own career averages during these playoff clutch scenarios. Later in the article, an “utlra clutch rating” finds that Kobe Bryant performed worse than 30 other NBA players in terms of true shooting percentage* in the final minute of close ballgames in the last five years. Number 10 on that list is Brandon Roy.

82games.com chimes in, showing that Bryant’s Player Efficiency Rating came in at 35th in 2003. It could have been a bad year for Kobe, but the numbers are piling up. Another article that came out on ESPN a few months ago charted all players clutch shooting percentages (final 5 minutes) in the 2008-2009 season. Bryant was 80-somethingeth on the list. A guy named Roy was well ahead of him. We all like to remember the game-winning shots and highlight reel plays, yet we forget all the misses. This is where statistics can fill in the holes of our selective memories.

In other news, the Blazers are 30-23 and find themselves in 8^th place in the West. Their offense continues to scorch opposing defenses, while their defense is still one of the least efficient in the league over the last two months. Boy it would be nice to have Oden back. I had a thought that perhaps playing at such the slow pace, the Blazers were actually helping opposing offenses. But that idea doesn’t seem to make much sense. The correlation between points allowed per possession and pace of play actually supports (weakly) the exact opposite, that faster teams are less efficient defensively.

Well that’s the news from Portland…where the bench is thin, the commentators dim, and the record is above average.

*True shooting percentage takes free throw shooting into account.

Eric Byrnes to Seattle

According to the Mariner blog site, USS Mariner, the Ms have acquired Eric Byrnes from the Diamondbacks. It seems like a pretty low-risk move, as the Mariners will be paying him relatively nothing. In fact, “the Mariners have no obligation to keep Byrnes if he’s not healthy in spring training, or he looks old, or whatever” stated Dave Cameron of USSM, so this sounds like a sweet deal for the Ms where they could possibly get another platoon option in left field who won’t suck down the team offense.

Byrnes had two productive seasons with Arizona in 2006 and 2007, recording a 0.805 OPS and swiping 75 bases with an 88% success rate. However, his last two seasons can only be described as a catastrophe. Only appearing in 136 games in 2008 and 2009 combined, Byrnes post a sub-.300 OBP and a meager 0.653 OPS.

Besides injury, one possible explanation of his poor performance might be bad luck. Though Dave Cameron cautions against being too optimistic about Byrnes’ BABIP approaching anything near 0.300, a league-average rate, I see no reason that it won’t regress toward his career average of 0.280. BABIP–the percentage of balls hit into play that actually become hits–is largely influenced by luck and randomness, though there are some things hitters can control, such as infield popups (sure outs), infield hits (speed indicator), and line drive percentage (often turn into hits). Byrnes actually popped up slightly less often and beat out infield base hits slightly more often during his recent down years than he did during his peak years (2006-07).

Multiple regression analysis suggests that his recent BABIP in the .220’s is on the very low end of a 95% confidence interval for his true BABIP, and that a more realistic number for a healthy Eric Byrnes would be 0.289. This surge in BABIP would likely lift his OPS into the .760 range, a figure just above the league average. Despite injuries, Byrnes showed few signs of slowing down over the past two seasons. While he attempted to steal a little less often, his infield hit percentage actually increased, suggesting that he still has the speed to beat out ground balls.

Luckily, the Mariners will get a chance to look Byrnes over in spring training before making any decisions. If he looks healthy, I believe he can still produce offensively for Seattle.

Baseball Stats

For anyone interested in reading up on some baseball statistics theory, THIS is the best, most comprehensive, compilation of articles I have ever seen. I will leave this link to the right on my blog roll in preparation for the upcoming season…

King Felix back for 5 more Seasons!

The Ms got their best pitcher back, signing Felix Hernandez to a 5-year, 78 million-dollar deal this past week. At 23,Hernandez has already put together four complete seasons, never pitching less than 190 innings. Coming off his best season thus far, Hernandez looks poised to enter his prime. Here’s what he’s got going for him…

Felix does not walk a lot of batters. The MLB average pitcher walks 8.9% of all batters, but Felix has walked just 7.6% throughout his career, and 7.3% last season. In conjunction with low walk rates, Hernandez’s career strikeout rate is 3.5% above the major league average, and was a whole percentage point higher last season. Keeping players off the bases, and preventing them from making contact has been a large part of the young ace’s success, and are aspects of his pitching that aren’t likely to vary too much in the wrong direction going forward.

In addition to Ks and BBs, Felix keeps the ball down. His career groundball/flyball ratio is much higher than the league average, leading to a healthy double play rate and low homerun rate. Obviously both are good things for pitchers.

Overall, according to my Run Values, Hernandez was the second most valuable player to the Mariners organization last season, sitting just behind some guy who goes by just one name. This is especially impressive because it is hard for pitchers to compete with hitters in terms of value when they only go out once every five days. Seeing that the Mets shelled out $138M to Santana over 6 years, and that the Yankees are paying Sabathia $161M over 7 years, a five-year, $78M contract seems like a sound investment in a pitcher that shows all the signs of being in Cy Young conversations every year.

Blazers Looking Very Offensive

In the five games since my last post, Portland has gone 3-2, playing all its games a slow pace. The Blazers havecontinued to score with mind-boggling efficiency in the recent months, averaging 109.5 points per game* since Joel Przybilla went down for the season at Dallas on December 22nd. The offensive explosion has come primarily from two things: a scorching 50.3% field goal percentage in the month of January, and an average of just 11 turnovers per game since Joel’s injury.

It’s not hard to pinpoint the reason for these drastic changes in offensive efficiency. The Blazer’s three-point percentage has remained fairly constant at about 35-36%, so the damage is being done inside the arc, starting with Juwan Howard, Przybilla’s replacement. Howard has averaged 10.5 points per game in January, shooting 55% from the floor. In addition to Howard’s offensive boost, Brandon Roy is shooting 60% this month, and even backup power forward, Jeff Pendergraph, is finding the bottom of the net 77% of the time in limited minutes. It’s very possible that Roy is enjoying some extra space in the middle to operate, getting easier looks for himself with hulking centers out of the way.

In addition to increased shooting percentages, the Blazers are taking better care of the ball. Throughout the season, Portland has turned it over just 13.8 times a game—good for 8^th in the league—but as mentioned before, that figure has dropped to less than 11 giveaways in the last fifteen games. Those extra 3 possessions that Portland has earned itself likely made the difference in three separate wins by just 4 points over that same span. So a potential 7-8 record in the last fifteen games jumped to 10-5, thanks in large part to limiting turnovers.

While the loss of Przybilla—who has offensive skills rivaling those of a large white gorilla—seems to have had a positive impact on the team’s scoring efficiency, his absence has been felt on the defensive end where the Blazers have become one of the worst teams in the league at stopping opponents from scoring. That being said, Portland’s explosive offensive attack has covered the spread, and given the Blazers the 10^th best scoring margin (difference between points for and points against) in the league over the last fifteen games.

It will be interesting to see how these offensive and defensive numbers change when Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw are reintroduced to the court—Outlaw being more known for his offense, while Batum is more known for his defensive prowess.

*All per-game statistics, unless otherwise noted, are prorated for a medium-paced game. Since the Blazers play at a very slow tempo, I adjust statistics to match the league average pace so that more accurate comparisons can be made.

Back to Rip City!

Since my most recent Blazer update, Portland has split its last six games and sits at 23-15, just two losses behind Denver for the division lead. One trend that is becoming clearer with each game is that Nate McMillan definitely wants to keep the pace down, especially playing with a thin bench. Portland has averaged about 93.5 possessions per game over the course of the entire season, but just 91 possessions since Przybilla went down. The Blazers are the slowest team in the league, and to put things into context, the next slowest teams are Detroit and Miami, who sit at 94.5 and 96.0, respectively.

Is the slow pace a good thing? It seems to be! Since Joel’s season-ending injury nine games ago, Portland is scoring nearly 1.1 points per possession, a figure that translates into 108 points per game (at an average pace) and matches the Suns for league-leading offensive efficiency. So why aren’t they leading the division? Defense.

Portland’s defensive efficiency was best in the league—allowing the least points per possession—before its two centers went down with injuries. Since then, the Blazer defense has allowed teams to score at will, with an efficiency (or lack thereof) that matches the league’s worst, Toronto. After losing two of the better shot blockers in the league, Portland went from allowing one of the league’s lowest opponents’ field goal percentages, to being merely at the league average. Quite a plunge for only 9 games.

Fortunately the offense has continued to pick up the slack for the undersized defense. If the Blazers can maintain their current levels of offensive and defensive efficiency, they should finish 25-19 over the last 44 games, give or take four wins. This likely gets them the 6^th seed come playoff time, with the 4-seed being a best-case scenario, yet missing the playoffs still being a real possibility.

I thought a couple weeks ago that the 7^th or 8^th seed would be an optimistic prediction for these injury-ridden Blazers, but the last couple weeks have shown me that they can still compete at a high level, and the numbers support that. There are still a lot of games to be played, so enjoy!

M’s Recent Acquisitions

In its most recent sequence of off-season moves, Seattle swapped Brandons with the Jays, and effectively traded utility player, Bill Hall, for first baseman, Casey Kotchman. So let’s see what they got.

Casey Kotchman, who will be 27 this February, has played much of his 6-year career with the Angels, while also seeing short stints with the Braves and Red Sox. His career OPS of 0.742 leaves something to be desired, though he is still young and has already turned in one season with an OPS well over 0.800.

Kotchman is a contact hitter; he hits dingers at a rate just below the league average while striking out half as often. It’s not surprising, then, that many of his outs are productive, moving runners along the base paths. In fact, with runners on base and less than two out, Kotchman is about 1.5 times more likely to make a productive out than a league-average player.

While his ability to make contact is excellent, his walk rate is a little on the low end, and his career OBP is only 0.337. On the defensive side, thanks to his trusty glove, Kotchman has saved his teams some runs over the course of his career. Putting it all together, according to my Run Values statistic (RV), he has been worth about 13 runs above average per every 162 games thus far in his career. Entering what are generally peak years for hitters, ages 27-29, it would not be merely wishful thinking to hope for 15-20 RVs.

Reliever, Brandon League has had some success in Toronto coming in from the pen, but doesn’t have the upside of the man he was traded for, Brandon Morrow. His expected ERA, derived from the statistics he directly controls (HR, BB, and Ks), is 3.93, while his actual ERA sits a little higher at 4.09. With just 6.9 K/9 on his career, he has not been an overpowering pitcher, and his walk rate still hovers north of a healthy figure. However, last season at 26 years old, we saw Brandon League strike out 9.2 batters per 9 innings and turn in a 3.62 K/BB stat, well above the league average! While it’s not likely that League will see the starting rotation any time soon, he will remain an above-average middle reliever, especially if he retains his improved K/BB ratio.

Edgar Martinez and the HOF

Unfortunately, our favorite slugger did not get into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility. In fact he was only supported by 36% of the sports writers that vote, a little less than half the votes required to get in.

For such a great hitter to only get 36% is somewhat mystifying, but playing more than 60% of his games at the DH position likely didn’t sit well with the voters, especially the National League softies. Leaving out the fact that he was a DH for now, his numbers jump off the page, just not the numbers the writers/voters like.

The conventional metrics: 0.312 AVG, 309 HR, 2247 Hits, 514 Doubles, 1219 R, 1261 RBI.

People are often voted into the hall for career accumulative numbers, like home runs or stolen bases, and Edgar did not accumulate any magic numbers in the conventional stats. However, when we look at some of the newer metrics, this is where Edgar shines.

0.418 OBP, 0.515 SLG (0.933 OPS), 524 Run Values*, 41 RV per 162 games.

These are the statistics that win ball games, and we hope that someday younger, more free-thinking, writers will start to take these into account. As for Andre Dawson, who was voted in this year, here are his numbers.

0.279 AVG, 438 HR, 2774 Hits, 503 Doubles, 1373 R, 1591 RBI

BUT

0.323 OBP, 0.482 SLG (.806 OPS), 148 RV, 9 RV per 162 games.

Dawson struck out a ton (93 Ks per 162 games), and he rarely walked, which pulled his OBP down significantly, nearly 100 points lower than Edgar’s. If the Hall of Fame attempts to elect the players that helped their teams the most, or the best, most-valuable players, then Andre Dawson shouldn’t even be on the list. His Run Value shows us he produced a quarter the production over an average player of what Edgar did. Andre Dawson never once finished a season with an OPS higher than Edgar’s career 0.933. HOF voters are shit heads.

As for being a DH, there is a fantastic article on ESPN HERE that you should read.

*Run Values is a figure I created that combines a number of stats (like hits, walks, homers, etc.) which all seem to correlate very nicely to run production in multiple regression studies I have done. A run value just represents a run produced by the player above what an average player would be producing. So a league average player would have a run value of 0.

32 Games In: Rip City Winning Despite an HMO All-star Team

Six games ago, things looked bleak for the Trail Blazers. At 15-11, having just lost Oden and Fernandez, I was skeptical as to their playoff chances. Then, amidst the loss of its last healthy center, the Vanilla Gorilla, Portland continued to pull out tough wins against good teams—at home and on the road—improving its record to 20-12.

What has driven this undermanned team to go 5-1 against good teams while losing Przybilla along the way? Chemistry is a funny thing in basketball, and these Blazers might have found a good mix of guys. In the last six games, Portland’s offensive efficiency has risen about 2 points per 100 possessions.* Much of that improvement has come from the last three games without Przybilla, where the Blazers are scoring about 5.5 more points per 100 possessions than their season average.

The loss of two centers is costly, but Portland seems to be making up for lost ground in the best way: limiting turnovers. While centers don’t often lead the league in turnovers, this is not because they make better decisions than guards or have softer hands. It is simply because they don’t touch the ball as often, so they have fewer chances to screw up. With its new guard-laden lineup, Portland has turned the ball over just 9.3 times per game since the Thrilla went down. Considering they give the ball away 14 times a game on average, the Blazers have saved themselves nearly 5 possessions per game: possessions where they now actually get a shot up. At just over 1 point per possession, the Blazers have basically given themselves 5 to 6 points bonus each game over the last three. The margins of victory in those games have been 4, 4, and 11 points, respectively, so I’d say those 5-6 points have been pretty crucial to winning.

Oden and Przybilla are better known for their defensive prowess, and the Blazers are giving up an additional 2 points per 100 possessions defensively.  Yet the Blazers’ offensive efficiency has increased to make up for the losses on the other end of the court, and Portland has managed an 8-4 record since Oden went out for the season (including the Houston game where he only played 4 minutes).

If Portland can continue to take advantage of its guard-heavy lineups by limiting turnovers and continuing to shoot high percentages from the free throw line (78%+), then its offensive points per possession can continue to make up for the loss of two centers on the defensive end.

It is interesting to note that, even with the loss of two centers and the increase of three-guard lineups, the Blazers are still keeping the pace slow. I’m not going to complain; they’re 5-0 in their last 5 slow-paced games.

*100 possessions represents a medium-paced game.

More Trade Possibilities?

According to ESPN,  the Ms made a deal with the Cubbies to get outfielder Milton Bradley for starter Carlos Silva. In terms of contracts and cap space, Bradley is on the books for two more seasons at an average of $10.5M, and Silva has three years left for an average of $11.7M. So while there’s not a huge difference in Salary, the Mariners got three years less of the slug known as Carlos Silva.

What they’re giving up…

Carlos Silva had one good season: 2005. He strikes out approximately nobody (3.8 K/9 which is less than Chien-Ming Wang), and despite being known as a groundball pitcher, his groundball-flyball ratio has hovered just barely above the league average the last four seasons. His lone saving grace is his control, having walked batters at half the league average rate throughout his career. In terms of Run Values, Silva has averaged just 4.7 runs over an average pitcher each season, meaning his team has been approximately 4.7 runs better over the course of the whole season for having him on the roster.

What they’re getting…

During his career, Milton Bradley has bounced from Montreal to Cleveland to LA to Oakland to San Diego to Texas to Chicago (Cubs) and now to Seattle. He is widely considered a good hitter, sporting an above-average career OPS of 0.821, however attitude and health have always been his downside. Bradley has been known to litter the infield with baseballs in disgust, among other tirades, and he has never played more than 141 games in a season, averaging just 94 games each year. That being said, when he does play, he has proven be a valuable hitter and should be able to boost the Mariner’s anemic offense. The past two seasons he has been able to play 125 games a year with an OPS of 0.890. In terms of Run Values, despite battling injury, Bradley is still 13 runs above average each season, and 18 runs above average since his third season in the league. I would not expect a repeat of his 2008 Run Value of 50, but at 32 he very well could play in 130 games and finish as much as 20 or 25 runs above average. Obviously he is likely to be more valuable than Señor Silva.