My Take on the Playoffs

With two games down in the World Series, and the Yankees and Phillies tied at one game apiece, this year’s champion comes down to a five game series. After 162 regular season games, and two playoff series each, the winner of a five game series (essentially) is going to be crowned. The playoffs are an interesting beast in any sport, but in baseball especially. Teams battle through long regular season campaigns to determine playoff matchups, accumulating records that generally mean very little in the playoffs. To say that playoffs are the most effective way of identifying the best team would be foolish.

Based on a correlation study over the last 19 seasons, measuring various season statistics against whether or not teams won the World Series (WS), it turns out that there is a weak correlation between winning regular season games and winning the Championship. In fact, the winningest team in the regular season wins the World Series about a quarter of the time. The team with the best run differential wins the WS about…yep, about a quarter of the time*. Why? Because playoffs are a crapshoot.

Let’s take two random teams, say, the Yankees and Phillies. Oh, they’re in the WS this year? What a coincidence. The Yankees won 63.6% of their games this season, while the Phillies won 57.4% of theirs. If we assume that this is a good estimate of each team’s true ability, and then play another 162 games, the chances that the Phillies finish with more wins than the Yankees is 12.7%**. Basically this means that the better team in this case will finish with a better record nearly 90% of the time.

If we put them up against each other in a seven game series, and assume the Yankees win about 53% of those matchups (63.6/(63.6+57.4), then probabilistically, New York has a 57% to win that 7-game series. So all of a sudden, New York has gone from a 90% chance of proving it is indeed the better team in the regular season (assuming it is), to just a 57% chance in the series.

Looking at the first two games of this series in particular, luck seems to be playing a role as it usually does in small sample sizes. The winner of each game has been the team that had both more hits on balls in play (BABIP), and a lower percentage of runners stranded on base (meaning more runners scored). Offenses have some control over these stats, but the Yankees’ BABIP jumping from .273 in game one to .353 in game two was likely a product of good fortunes, and also the difference in a 3-1 game.

Obviously there are a lot of variables, such as differences in the two leagues (both rules and level of competition) and the nature of a series vs. a regular season that allows teams like New York to go to a three-man rotation. But my point is still intact: teams have a much better chance to prove their true ability in 162 games than in 7, or 5. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching the playoffs. They are fun, exciting and emotional (and make a lot of rich people richer), but they do not often weed out the best team.

However, if I have to pick a winner, my brain says the Yankees, but my heart wants the Phillies.

 

*I am not exactly saying that in the last 20 years, 25% percent of all the regular season’s best teams won the WS. What I mean is that the regression curve predicted that each regular season champ had about a 25%  theoretical shot at winning the WS.

**This assumes a normal distribution, using the binomial variance with n=162, p=team winning percentage.

 

Hogs – Cards. Who wins?

Every week boatloads of TV hours are spent analyzing and predicting which teams will win, who could go 16-0, who could finish 0-fer 2009, whether or not wearing a Yankees hat is a sign that Tom Brady is slipping, etc. So I just really wanted to do it, too! Stats are sparsely thrown out to support a prediction here and there, but generally per-game stats are used for these analyses. It is my opinion that a team’s average production per possession, and that team’s comfort level with playing at different game paces are much more telling predictors of winners and losers(check out my article on possession analysis).

I count offensive possessions by adding up all the ways a team can end an offensive drive. Those would be punts, turnovers, offensive touchdowns, field goals, and fourth-down failures. I’m not too interested in kick and punt returns yet, but those are obvious keys to winning and will be taken into account some day.

Thus far in 2009, teams are averaging about 10 possessions per game, with a standard deviation of 0.8 possessions. So I’m going to define a slow-paced team as one that gets less than 9.2 possessions per game, and medium-paced team as one between 9.2 and 10.8 possessions, and a fast-paced team as one that gets more than 10.8 possessions.

Through 5 games, Seattle has followed the league norm pretty closely, with 10.4 possessions per game. This weekend the Seahawks take on the Arizona Cardinals, the fastest-paced team in the league at 11.3 possessions per game. In its two wins this season, Seattle crushed the Rams and Jaguars, two teams that have more in common than sucking. The Rams and Jags play almost exactly at the league average pace, while two of Seattle’s losses—Indianapolis and San Francisco—were to teams that play at extreme paces (SF 11, IND 9). The only other loss came to an average-paced, one-loss Bears team, where the Seahawks were playing without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck and held a lead with 2 minutes to go. The point? Though the sample size is small, the Hawks seem to play better at average paces. Yeah, I know SF and IND have an 8-2 combined record, versus the 2-8 record tallied by the Rams and Jaguars, so here’s where I’ll look at points per possession.

The only fast paced team the Seahawks played was the 49ers. Their opponent this weekend, the Cardinals, play at a faster pace but match offensive efficiency with the Niners.  In terms of defense, the Cardinals are giving up more points per possession than SF, and the game is at Seattle’s Qwest Field. Oh, and The SF game was backup quarterback Seneca Wallace’s first start this season, and not a good one. Hasselbeck is probable for the game tomorrow.

Scoring more points per possession and giving up less than the Cardinals should nullify the fact that the Seahawks lost to their only other fast-paced opponent. Playing at home, likely with Hasselbeck, the Seahawks win 24-17.

By week 11, when we can be more sure about the stats teams are producing, I hope to a more complete weekly prediction.

New Stats Posted!

New Mariners stats are up…check out Player Values and the M’s Run Scoring Averages!

Football Injuries

As I attempt to think of more ways to analyze tackle football, I would like to share this article about the effect of football injuries on seasons. Injuries can obviously be devastating, but which positions are more costly to lose? How much more is a superstar quarterback worth than his backup? It’s an interesting article…

A Little Football Idea for your Monday

I’ve been thinking about football stats now that the NFL and NCAA seasons are upon us, and I’ve been wondering (as usual) how we can better rate teams and make predictions. One big issue in football that makes prophetic prediction more difficult is injuries. There was a great article that came out in the New York Times about the costliness of certain injuries, and each position’s relative value to the team. Since injuries, the article argues, are almost impossible to foresee, our predictions are limited to the other aspects of a team that we can predict.

Statistics that are common for football teams include points scored per game and points allowed per game, and we also rate offenses and defenses on yards per game, in addition to points. Here’s my argument: some teams play faster-paced games and therefore get more possessions, while other teams like to grind it out on the ground, increasing time per possession and reducing possessions per game. I think it would be illuminating to look at points and yards per possession. With this data, we could look at how a certain team performs – in terms of scoring and yards per possession – in games where possessions are limited versus how that same team performs in games where possessions are numerous.

Understanding a team’s efficiency at various game paces could potentially help a lot in predicting the outcomes of games between vastly different-styled teams. While breaking down every one of 256 games is a daunting task for my Monday morning, I took a look at the 2008 season as a whole to see if anything looked remotely interesting.

New Orleans led everyone and his mother offensively in yards per game, touchdowns per game, and of course, points per game. The Saints scored 7 more offensive touchdowns than next-best San Diego, outscored San Diego by 1.5 points per game, and outgained the Chargers by more than 60 yards per game*. However, the Chargers utilized more of a balance between running and passing, thus eating up more clock and limiting their total possessions. In terms of points per possession, the Chargers actually came out on top. With fifteen more possessions on the season, enough to match the Saints, the Chargers actually would have scored 18 more total offensive points than New Orleans.

I think any stat per possession is going to be more telling than that same stat per game. Using more clock up, the Chargers limited their own scoring potential, but they simultaneously reduced the scoring potential of their opponents.

We can do the same thing with defensive efficiency, looking at how well a defense holds opponents to limited yards each set of downs. Looking at the college game, the Oregon Duck defense has given up an unimpressive 26.3 points per game thus far. But the quick three-and-out offensive strategy employed by Masoli and company – they had the ball for a grand total of 1:30 during the first quarter of Saturday’s game – puts the defense out on the field for more possessions per game. I would venture to guess, though the stats are not available to confirm, that Oregon’s defense has faced more possessions this season than most other teams, and that their points allowed per possession could be one of the best (lowest) in the country.

Once this NFL season gets rolling, I hope to be able to start breaking down each team’s games in terms of slow-paced, normal-paced, or fast-paced games, and then determine if certain teams tend to have advantages over other teams that play vastly different styles.

*The Chargers were second overall in touchdowns and offensive points, but 11^th in total yards. I counted a team’s offensive possessions by adding up offensive touchdowns, field goals, turnovers, 4th down failures and punts, the five basic ways a possession can end.

MLB Playoffs

Don’t look now, but most teams only have about 13 games left in the season. While many of the playoff races have been decided, there are couple stragglers to watch out for.

The closest playoff race this season can be found in the AL Central, where the Tigers have just a 3-game lead on the Twins and a 6.5-game lead on Chicago. The AL Central’s mediocrity this season puts none of these teams in contention for the wildcard, making this a true playoff race reminiscent of Septembers before the wildcard’s birth in 1995.

None of the AL Central’s contenders has a particularly difficult remaining schedule, each playing teams with combined records under 0.500. According to ESPN’s playoff odds estimator, this gives Detroit’s 3-game lead about a 78% chance at the division, with Minnesota and Chicago trailing at 21% and 1%, respectively. However, this playoff odds estimator doesn’t take into account that former Cy Young winner, Jake Peavy, will be getting at least two more starts for the Sox, nor does it figure in that recent acquisition, Alex Rios, has suffered from an awful BABIP since moving to Chicago. A couple great starts from Peavy, and a return to normal production for Rios could give the White Sox the edge they need to raise that 1% chance at the playoffs to, like, 5%.

In the NL West, the Dodgers’ 5-game lead on the Rockies looks pretty safe, but the Rockies know all about comebacks. On September 14th, 2007, the Rockies found themselves 6.5 games back on the division, and 3.5 games back on the wildcard, with three teams ahead of them in each race. All it took for Colorado to make the playoffs was to win 14 of its last 15 games just to tie San Diego for the wildcard. In a 13-inning, tie-breaking game in Denver, the Rockies squeaked out a dramatic 9-8 win to make the playoffs and went on to play for the World Series.

Though it’s not likely to happen again, the possibility is always out there, and that what makes playoff races exciting. Colorado’s advantage this season is that it still has a 4.5-game lead on the Giants for the Wildcard. The playoff odds estimator gives them a 91% chance at the playoffs. And Dodgers fans need not worry, they have a 99.9% chance at the playoffs seeing as their hypothetical 9.5-game lead on the wildcard serves as extra playoff protection. The distant Giants should hold onto some hope, however, as their schedule is pretty weak the rest of the way. Playoff odds give them a 5% shot at playing into October. If it makes you Giants faithful feel better, you can relive the 1951 shot heard ’round the world.

Everything else is pretty much a wrap. We’ll see the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers and Rockies in all likelihood, and then either Detroit or Minnesota for that final spot. But it might be fun to pull for the White Sox and the Giants!

New Stats Posted!

I have just updated the Mariners Values page as well as the Stats page (along the top of this page). Ichiro, as always, leads the sputtering offensive charge with a Run Value of 40, good for 4.2 wins contributed. He has many impressive qualities as a hitter, but perhaps his most underrated quality is his ability to avoid grounding into double plays. The double play is about the biggest offensive killer there is, and Ichiro has only hit into ONE this season.

During the other half of innings, Felix Hernandez has dominated the stat lines. Focusing on aspects of his game that he has the most control over, Hernandez strikes out 3.1 batters for ever one that he walks. Jarrod Washburn’s Run Value, however, is much lower because his great ERA while he was in Seattle was more the product of luck and a great defense that actual ability.

Pitching Extremes

Here are some of the season’s extremes for MLB’s hurlers.

The Luckiest Guy Award goes to a pitcher whose team decides to score significantly more runs when he’s on the mound than when he’s not, as well as being the beneficiary a few other “luck” factors. Maybe he buys drinks (or girls) for all the guys after wins. Or maybe he puts together a nice gift basket with Brut and those little origami swans for the home run hitters of the night. But more likely he’s just plain lucky. Oakland’s Trevor Cahill gets 6.1 runs every 9 innings he’s on the mound, a full 1.3 runs above Oakland’s average run support. In addition to boosted run support, of the 19 runners Cahill has left on for relievers only 5 have scored (I think Andrew Bailey deserves one of those gift baskets), and his BABIP is just 0.276, indicating that balls hit are not finding holes in the field. Thus, Luckiest Guy in the League Award goes to Trevor Cahill.

The runner up for that award goes, ironically, to Matt Cain. Despite constantly getting screwed by poor run support previously in his career, Cain is now a lucky man.  With a microscopic (and very lucky) BABIP of 0.261 and a ridiculously high percentage of stranded runners, Cain’s 2.61 ERA is almost completely a product of good fortunes. Also, his run support has finally risen to the Giant’s average, which isn’t much in comparison to the league, but better than ever for him.

Using the same definition, the UNluckiest Award has to go to Matt Garza of the TB Rays. On a team that scores nearly 5 runs per game, Garza only gets 3.1 of those. The Rays score nearly 2 runs less per 9 innings when Garza is on the hill than they do on average. Though I would never judge a pitcher on his win-loss record, some do (like people who vote for the Cy Young). Garza’s 7-10 record is not impressive despite allowing just 4 runs per game, and that poor record is almost wholly the product of ill-timed Rays scoring.

Wild Thing

Mets flamethrower, Oliver Perez (his idol can be seen to the left), has earned the Animal Award for wildest pitcher. He walks almost 18% of all batters he sees – second worst in the league* – which is like giving a free 180 OBP points to opposing batters. He gets the league’s silver medal again for strike rate, pitching strikes on only 57% of all pitches (the MLB average is 63% for pitchers who have pitched at least 60 innings). As a side note, he also leads the league in four-pitch walks per inning. Looking back, I think Perez probably could have won this award a number of times, so why the Mets gave him $12 million this season is beyond me.

The Most Efficient Pitcher Award goes to Father Luke Gregerson of the Padres. With 29 three-pitch strikeouts in just 66 innings, Gregerson is nice enough to save everyone a little time.

Clayton Richard gets the Crafty Award, having picked off more base runners than any other pitcher in the league (he also ranks 2nd in pickoffs per inning behind Seattle’s Sean White).

"No, FOUR orders of Teryaki. Shit I gotta pitch..."

On the flip side, Brad Penny has allowed 27 stolen bases versus just 2 caught stealing, and hasn’t picked off a single runner in more than 150 innings. Congratulations Penny, you’ve earned the Oblivious Award.

The Fidgety Award goes to Mike Pelfrey, who has balked a league-best 6 times in 160 innings of work.

The Least Intimidating Pitcher title is awarded to Indian Jeremy Sowers. Sowers stands at just 6 feet 1 inch and 180 pounds, pretty small for a starting pitcher. He strikes out a paltry 3.6 batters every nine innings (about half the league average) and has hit just two batters in 114 innings. No one is afraid of Jeremy Sowers.

And finally, the MVP Awards. Tim Lincecum (NL) and Zack Grienke (AL) have dominated their respective leagues all season. If either received some decent run support, he could have 20 wins already, but their most impressive stats can be found in the strikeout and walk columns. Despite looking too young to date my 16-year-old sister, Lincecum has a 4.1 K/BB ratio which is partly a product of an eye-popping 10.6 Ks per 9 innings. Grienke sports an even more impressive 5.1 K/BB ratio, allowing just 1.8 free passes per 9 innings. To put things in perspective, the league average batter strikes out twice as much as he walks, but when he faces either Lincecum or Grienke, that ratio more than doubles.

*Only counting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season.

Offensive Extremes this Season

The 2009 Offensive Extremes. A hodgepodge of random numbers. Enjoy!

Sometimes one hits the ball cleverly around fielders to get on base, other times he just hits it into the stands where they can’t get it, and occasionally when he doesn’t want to work that hard he just waits for four balls. Then there are those players that do it the hard way, taking 70, 80 and 90-mile-an-hour pitches in the back or the arm, or even the head, to get that “free” base. Chase Utley, the Phillies’ standout second baseman, has been plunked in just over 3% of his plate appearances for a league-high 20 manly trips to first. But it’s Cleveland’s Kelly Shoppach who takes my Tough Guy Award, reaching base the hard way on more than 6% of all his plate appearances. As my dad would say, “way to sacrifice your body for the good of team. It’ll heal before you get married.” Except he’s already married.

Then there are the power hitters. While Pujols leads the world in most good things, it’s actually Yankees fill-in Eric Hinske who leads all players (with double-digit plate appearances) in homers per plate appearance with a dinger ever 11.7 trips to the plate. But among all real players – who have at least as many plate appearances as the Giant’s Panda weighs in pounds – the Muscle-Man Award goes to  Albert Pujols with a homerun every 12.9 PAs.

And, of course, the league MVP awards. It’s a no brainer in both leagues this season, seeing as Albert Pujols (NL) and Joe Mauer (AL) lead their respective leagues by at least 10 runs my Runs Value stat.

On with the less helpful statistics. Futility is much more amusing anyway…

WHIFF!

The second least productive thing a batter can do at the plate is strike out. Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks has done just that 190 times this season, headlining an Arizona lineup that features 3 guys with more than 100 strikeouts. Reynolds is on pace for a whopping 220 if he plays out the rest of the games this season. Anyone remember Jay Buhner, the Bone? Seattle fans remember that homerun-or-bust swinging philosophy, but even he only topped out at 175. Adam Dunn, the Natty’s free swinger? His PR is “only” 195. The current record holder for strikeouts in a season? Well that would, of course, be Mark Reynolds himself with 204. Go get ‘em, tiger.

The absolute least productive thing a hitter can do is to ground into a double play (GIDP). Evan Longoria and Yadier Molina are tied in a heated battle this season with 26 apiece. However, with more than 100 less plate appearances than Longoria, the king of ruining rallies would have to be Yadier Molina. The Cardinal catcher hits into DPs 5.3% of the time! That’s pretty much the same thing as lowering his On-base percentage by 53 points. On the flip side, Detroit center fielder Curtis Granderson has gone 599 plate appearances with only one GIDP, making him 32 times less likely to ground into a double play than Molina.

But the winner of the All-around Offense Killer Award has to go to a player that screws his team as often as possible. He may not be the least valuable of all, but he’s minimizing his potential the most. This guy’s tendency to strike out, get caught stealing, and ground into double plays is exceptional. Rockies shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, has been caught stealing 11 times and has grounded into 19 double

Tulowitzki

plays this season, effectively taking 30 potential runs off the basepaths. That 56 OBP points! His 101 strikeouts add a nice touch to the All-around Offense Killer Award. Don’t get me wrong, Tulowitzki has been productive this year. But hidden between his 24 homeruns and 63 walks, there exist some important numbers that cannot be ignored.

The Least Valuable Player, however, is basically an offense killer with no productive qualities to start with. Seattle fans rejoice (not because we had him, but because we dumped him), it’s Yuniesky Betancourt. His bat alone is 22 runs below average, and he has managed to cost his teams more than

Betancourt

10 runs defensively this season.  At least he helps his teammates up…

Look for the pitchers’ extremes soon!

2B, SS and Catchers Wielding Big Sticks

Using Run Values to rate players this season, I have come up with the top 10 hitters of the year in terms of value to their respective teams. This version does not include their gloves, but only their wood…not funny. You’ll notice that we could actually create a real team here out of the positions that these guys play. I’m not sure if that would have been possible 10 years ago before the advent of the slugging middle infielders and catchers.

Player	Age	Batting	Wins
Albert Pujols	29	63.3	6.5
Prince Fielder	25	47.5	5.0
Joe Mauer	26	47.2	4.9
Hanley Ramirez	25	47.0	4.9
Chase Utley	30	46.6	4.9
Adam Dunn	29	42.5	4.5
Kevin Youkilis	30	36.7	3.9
Ryan Braun	25	36.7	3.9
Matt Holliday	29	35.2	3.7
Miguel Cabrera	26	35.1	3.7

And the lineup looks something like this…

1B           Pujols

2B           Utley

3B           Youkilis

SS           Ramirez

C             Mauer

OF          Dunn

OF          Braun

OF          Holliday

DH          Fielder

UT          Cabrera

Not a bad team, and some of these guys can actually play defense, too! Utley’s 3-year average UZR defensive rating is best in the whole league – AL and NL combined – over that span. Holliday and Pujols go 9 and 10, while Youkilis weighs in at 23 (all out of 117 qualified position players).

Despite some defensive prowess on this list, the emphasis is definitely on hitting. While great glove men of the past like Ozzie Smith wowed us with circus plays – to go along with back flips – I think team management is figuring out that players can do more offensively to help the team than defensively. In the last decade we’ve seen a hitting explosion among catchers, shortstops and second basemen, coinciding with the stats analysis craze (not so coincidentally, methinks). A guy like Utley can save his team about 45 runs playing second over the span of three seasons, but can add more than 45 runs offensively in just one. Thus the emphasis on hitting from traditionally defensive positions…