Edgar Martinez and the HOF

Unfortunately, our favorite slugger did not get into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility. In fact he was only supported by 36% of the sports writers that vote, a little less than half the votes required to get in.

For such a great hitter to only get 36% is somewhat mystifying, but playing more than 60% of his games at the DH position likely didn’t sit well with the voters, especially the National League softies. Leaving out the fact that he was a DH for now, his numbers jump off the page, just not the numbers the writers/voters like.

The conventional metrics: 0.312 AVG, 309 HR, 2247 Hits, 514 Doubles, 1219 R, 1261 RBI.

People are often voted into the hall for career accumulative numbers, like home runs or stolen bases, and Edgar did not accumulate any magic numbers in the conventional stats. However, when we look at some of the newer metrics, this is where Edgar shines.

0.418 OBP, 0.515 SLG (0.933 OPS), 524 Run Values*, 41 RV per 162 games.

These are the statistics that win ball games, and we hope that someday younger, more free-thinking, writers will start to take these into account. As for Andre Dawson, who was voted in this year, here are his numbers.

0.279 AVG, 438 HR, 2774 Hits, 503 Doubles, 1373 R, 1591 RBI

BUT

0.323 OBP, 0.482 SLG (.806 OPS), 148 RV, 9 RV per 162 games.

Dawson struck out a ton (93 Ks per 162 games), and he rarely walked, which pulled his OBP down significantly, nearly 100 points lower than Edgar’s. If the Hall of Fame attempts to elect the players that helped their teams the most, or the best, most-valuable players, then Andre Dawson shouldn’t even be on the list. His Run Value shows us he produced a quarter the production over an average player of what Edgar did. Andre Dawson never once finished a season with an OPS higher than Edgar’s career 0.933. HOF voters are shit heads.

As for being a DH, there is a fantastic article on ESPN HERE that you should read.

*Run Values is a figure I created that combines a number of stats (like hits, walks, homers, etc.) which all seem to correlate very nicely to run production in multiple regression studies I have done. A run value just represents a run produced by the player above what an average player would be producing. So a league average player would have a run value of 0.

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2 Responses to Edgar Martinez and the HOF

  1. urbandaddy says:

    Awesome post. I had forgotten about Martinez. Your statistical comparison to Dawson was interesting but how many seasons did Martinez play? Much less than Dawson, no?

    I also blog @ http://www.daddyknowssports.wordpress.com

    • uoduckfan33 says:

      Thanks 🙂
      Edgar officially played 18 seasons, had 14 seasons with at least 300 plate appearances, 12 seasons with at least 500, and 8 seasons with at least 600.
      Dawson played 21 seasons, had 18 seasons with at least 300 PA, 14 seasons with at least 500, and 7 seasons with at least 600.

      Also, while Edgar did play most of his career in the King Dome, a hitter’s park, his OPS+ (which calibrates OPS for the home ball park and era of a given player) of 147 eclipses Dawson’s 119.

      There are very articulate counter arguments to the criticism that Edgar was a DH in the article that I cited…

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