2010 MVP and Cy Young Awards

This kicks off my Extreme Awards where I give out the best and worst awards of 2010 for all kinds of things. Let’s get started on a more serious note. My NL MVP Award goes to Albert Pujols, over the other candidates Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman and Carlos Gonzalez.

 

Poo Holes

 

Conventional Offensive Stats (avg/obp/slg):

Pujols: .312/.414/.596

Votto: .324/.424/.600

Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510

Cargo: .336/.376/.598 (26 SB, 8 CS)

Really Cargo doesn’t even belong on this list. He hit for a great average, hit a lot of homeruns, and recorded a lot of RBI, but 2 of those three things just aren’t that important (average and RBI). Cargo walked rarely, and was below average defensively according to UZR. UZR does tend to fluctuate a lot, indicating that one-year data is considered a small sample, but it’s all we have to go by for the young Rock. He’s a rising star, but he just doesn’t compete with the other three here.

Votto mashed like none other this year, recording the highest wOBA in the NL, 19 points better than Pujols. But Pujols wins this battle for 2 key reasons: he played 9 more games than Votto, and I believe he is a better defender. While Votto’s averages are higher (wOBA, WAR), there were nine games in which he didn’t appear where he could have played a role in the outcome. Nine games that Pujols did play. As for the defense, I mentioned before that UZR tends to have a high variance, and that when possible, career averages are a better indication of true ability. Pujols has average +6 runs per season over his career, while Votto has only averaged about +2.5. So, despite Votto’s beating out Pujols this year by 1.2 runs defensively, I believe strongly that it was a quirk of UZR process, and not a true indication of ability. Votto gets my Silver Medal.

As for Zimmerman, his offensive stats may look a little weak in comparison to the other three, but his glove is one of the best in the game. He put up a +13 UZR this season, and he has averaged more than 10 runs saved defensively per year throughout his career. A run saved is as good as a run produced and, in combination with his well above-average offensive abilities, Zimmerman earns my 3rd-place vote this season.

 

Hamilton

 

As for the AL MVP, it was really a one-man race much of the season, with a lot of guys vying for second. Josh Hamilton, despite missing 29 games, performed head and shoulders above the rest. Total games played mattered in the case of Votto and Pujols because they were so close both offensively and defensively. However, 24 of Hamilton’s 29 absences from the lineup came in September—while recovering from an injury—after his Rangers had all but locked up the AL West.

Here are your conventional offensive stats:

Hamilton: .359/.411/.633 (8 SB, 1 CS)

Adrian Beltre: .321/.365/.553 (2 SB, 1 CS)

Evan Longoria: .294/.372/.507 (15 SB, 5 CS)

Carl Crawford: .307/.356/.495 (47 SB, 10 CS)

Jose Bautista: .260/.378/.617 (9 SB, 2 CS)

Beltre and Longoria, along with Zimmerman, are two of the best third baseman in the game defensively. Beltre’s glove has been below-average in just one season since the advent of UZR in 2002, and Longoria has saved 44 runs in his first three years in the Bigs. Though they have both been phenomenal defensively, Hamilton has strung together back-to-back years with respectable UZR figures, playing one of the most demanding positions on the field, Center. The fact is, no player matched Hamilton’s offensive and defensive contribution this season. Beltre gets my Silver, while Longoria takes the Bronze.

My 4th-place guy, Crawford, has always been a solid player at the plate, increasing his value with his speed on the basepaths. He stole bases at 78% this season, and I’m sure his speed from first and second to home helped the rays out on all the singles and doubles Longoria was hitting. wOBA drives the offensive side of the WAR statistic on fangraphs, but does not include stolen bases or any other measurement of speed, so Crawford gets screwed a little bit. That speed, however, does get measured indirectly in his defensive range. Crawford put up a staggering +18.4 UZR this season, and he has averaged +13 UZR per season over the course of his career.

Bautista hit 54 HR…and walked a lot. This is a good combination, but he’s a loss defensively and he strikes out too much. But hey, being the fifth best player in my book means something, right? I’ll bet he’s sitting by his computer right now waiting for this article to come out.

 

Quien necesita este glove?!

 

Now for your pitchers—your hurlers, your aces, your gunslingers. The AL Cy Young goes to Seattle’s Felix Hernandez. Not a big surprise if you read my article last week. I won’t repeat myself too much, but Felix has the winning formula: lots of ground balls, a high strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and the sheepiest little grin when he thinks something is funny. By the way, can you think of someone else with those first three attributes? Oh right, Roy Halladay. He’s pretty good I hear. Let’s take a look at the stats this season…

League Average: 4.08 ERA, 7.13 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 (Fangraphs refuses to publish the league average GB%, but I believe it’s between 40% and 45%)

Hernandez: 2.27 ERA, 53.9 GB%, 8.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9

Halladay: 2.44 ERA, 51.2 GB%, 7.86 K/9, 1.08 BB/9

 

Halladay

 

These are some similar numbers. Felix has slight advantages in both strikeouts and GB%, while Halladay has a more significant edge in reducing free passes. This leads me to my NL Cy Young winner (who has already been introduced), Roy Halladay of the Phillies. He was my guy before his no-no to open up the ALDS on Wednesday, and that performance only strengthened my opinion of him.

Other receiving honorable mentions include…

AL: Cliff Lee (top-ranked 10.28 K/BB) and Francisco Liriano (top-ranked 3.06 xFIP).

NL: Adam Wainwright (51.6 GB%, 2.19 BB/9), Tim Lincecum (48.9 GB%, 9.8 K/9), and Matt Latos (9.21 K/9, 2.44 BB/9).

Notice that David Price, C.C. Sabathia and Ubaldo Jimenez are conspicuously missing from the list. I did not forget them. They are simply not as good as those listed ahead of them here, based on all the best measurements of pitching ability and success. It is my opinion that individual wins and teams wins should not drive MVP/Cy Young awards.

Advertisements

2 Responses to 2010 MVP and Cy Young Awards

  1. bill says:

    in your description about Cargo, “two of those three things (average and RBI) just aren’t that important.”

    really?? average and RBI aren’t that important? i know that it’s trendy to look at more complex stats like WAR and Batting Wins, etc. but you win the game by getting on base and scoring runs. to say that RBI isn’t an important stat is to say that teams scoring runs isn’t important. that’s just ridiculous.

    also, the Cy Young Award usually doesn’t go to pitchers who don’t have a winning record (see Felix Hernandez’ 12-12 mark). i know he led the league in ERA and maybe you think wins are like RBI and aren’t important but i don’t see it happening for him.

    • uoduckfan33 says:

      Perhaps I was a little harsh on RBI and average. They can tell us some things for sure, but there are statistics that are more representative on a player’s value to his team.

      Take RBI for example. A player gets RBI when A) there are runners on base for him to hit in, and B) when he hits them in. So RBI are a function of both something the batter controls, and something he doesn’t control.

      In 2009, Todd Helton had just 86 RBI, while Ryan Howard recorded 141 RBI. But looking a little deeper, Howard came to the plate with 500 total runners on base, while Helton only had 370 runners to hit around. 20% of the runners on base scored during Howard’s plate appearances, while 21% of Helton’s runners scored during his plate appearances. So actually, Helton seemed to be the better “run producer,” if you will, hitting runners in more efficiently despite recording 55 less RBI.

      As for average, again it is important, but it weighs singles, doubles, triples and homers all as being equal. You can’t honestly argue that a single has the same value as a homerun, yet that is exactly what average is saying. Additionally, average completely ignores walks. Getting on base is a key component to scoring runs, and walks are one way to do that. So while higher averages do lead to more run scoring generally, there are stats that are much better at explaining run scoring, starting with OPS, and then moving on to wOBA, and my own personal values for various offensive stats that I derived from a linear regression model. I wrote another article here highlighting the differences between average, OBP and OPS.

      Pitching wins is a stat based on a number of variables. A) How well a pitcher pitches, B) how many runs his team scores, C) how good the defense behind him is, D) how many wins his bullpen saves, and probably a few others. But I think the point is clear: a pitcher only has control over how well he pitches, and has virtually no control over the other variables, variables which still play a role in Wins. It seems more logical to me to rate pitchers based on only their abilities, and not on various things outside their control. So I would say wins are a lot like RBI: good pitchers tend to get more wins and good hitters tend to get more RBI, but it is not a strong enough indication of true ability in many cases. In 2005, Kevin Millwood won the ERA crown in the AL with a mark of 2.86, yet his record was only 9-11. In 2007, Matt Cain finished with a 3.65 ERA, but a dismal record of 7-16. These are but a few example of how wins do not indicate the true abilities of a pitcher. Since there are better ways to measure these abilities, I choose to use those.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: