I admit, I gave up listening when they were down 5-0 in the 5th before tuning back into Gamecast in the bottom of 9. I thought I might summarize the rollercoaster storyline with this cool little thingy courtesy of Fangraphs.

(Right-click and open in new tab to enlarge)

The WE column toward the right indicates the Win Expectancy, or basically the probability of going on to win after that given play. When Carlos Villanueva struck Luis Rodriguez out to kick off the bottom of the 7th, an average baseball team would have had a 0.3% of winning the game in that situation. The Mariners are no average team. Their offense makes the Royals look like God’s gift to baseball. The M’s chances of winning might actually have been negative.

After an unexpected comeback, that same Luis Rodriguez–described aptly by one Fangraphs reader as “the 25th man on one of the worst teams in baseball”–found himself up with the tying and winning runs in scoring position and two down in the bottom of the 9th. The Leverage Index (LI) measures the importance of an at bat. Average is 1.00. High-stress is 2.00. Shit-your-pants nerve-wracking is 4.00. Luis Rodriguez’s at bat in the bottom of the ninth was an 8.16.

Just two innings before, his seemingly meaningless strikeout lowered his team’s chances of winning to a game-low 0.3%–or more likely 0.0003% for the Ms. Then with his nervous system halfway through his colon he raised the Mariners’ Win Expectancy from a meager 21.8% to 100% with a walk off single into the gap, adding 78.2 winning percentage points with one swing of the bat. Eat that, Jays.

I love baseball season 🙂


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