Bad News Bedards

When Erik Bedard played for the Ms, Erik Bedard was good. Unfortunately for he and Seattle, he could never stay off the DL for a full season. Though he didn’t play a lot, Seattle was still able to draw surplus value from his last (incentive-laden) contract. In 2011, the Ms paid Bedard just $1 million to post 1.5 WAR in 91 innings. Free agents generally fly off the shelves for about $5 million per 1 WAR. Enter stats major: “Seattle got high value out of Bedard for low cost.” Somebody get stats major a job.

Not being a particularly big fan of the media, Bedard seemingly enjoyed the smaller-market Seattle area where he could avoid a lot of attention. He’s a left-handed pitcher with a recent track record of giving up a lot of fly balls. (Quick review: Left-handed, fly ball pitchers are more valuable in the cavernous expanse known as Safeco Field.) Bedard is now a free agent, and Seattle seems like a really comfortable fit for him. Maybe Seattle could get some sort of home-town discount for his services.  But then the Washington Nationals had to go and screw it up.

Did they sign Bedard? No, but they decided that over-paying Chien-Ming Wang 4 million bucks for 2012 was a good idea. Wang is an injury-riddled pitcher with a history of success. Bedard is an injury-riddled pitcher with a history of success. Bedard is better, and, if possible, less injury riddled. Observe.

Chien-Ming Wang

Season

Team

ERA

FIP

IP

WAR

2008

Yankees

4.07

3.74

95

2

2009

Yankees

9.64

5.38

42

0.2

2011

Nationals

4.04

4.57

62.1

0.2

Career

4.15

4.04

733

13.3

Erik Bedard

Season

Team

ERA

FIP

IP

WAR

2008

Mariners

3.67

4.32

81

1

2009

Mariners

2.82

3.55

83

1.9

2011

Ms/Sox

3.62

3.64

129.1

2.4

Career

3.7

3.65

951.1

21.4

Not only has Bedard pitched more innings in the last three seasons, he has performed better overall. Wang was only better in 2008, though he was healthy for those 95 innings before suffering a season-ending injury. Since that injury, Wang has pitched just 104 innings in three seasons. And Wang just got $4 million. Bedard’s price tag will most definitely go up, and probably to a point where the Mariners could no longer get a bargain on him.

It’s not hard to project Bedard for 1 or 1.5 WAR conservatively, and based on Wang’s 2012 lottery winnings, Bedard will demand upwards of $7-8 million. This is especially true in a free agent market where C.J. Wilson is now the only show in town. Thanks to the Natties, Bedard is now less likely to end up a Mariner, and it’s worth looking other places for surplus-value back end starter.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: